Terminal iPhone 5 it is to be launched in September of this year and in the USA they are already being made first estimates regarding the sales figures of the device. Last year iPhone 4S was sold in 4 million copies in just 3 days after the official release and in 33 million copies in 3 months after the release. This year an analyst claims that iPhone 5 it will be sold in 6 - 10 million copies in 10 days after the official release, a very high number even for Apple.
While our model, along with most of the Street, assumes an October launch, we believe that a September launch could result in the final 10 days of the month generating 6-10 million iPhone 5 unit sales, which would likely shift out of December. We believe if iPhone 5 launches in September, Apple could sell 26-28 million units in the quarter (this takes into account iPhone sales slowing dramatically from September 12-20, which is announcement to availability). This would imply 8% upside to the Street's current $35 billion in revenue and 12% upside to EPS of $8.46.
The estimate of the American analyst is probably based on the fact that Apple would launch the iPhone 5 in several countries around the world and not only in the USA, otherwise the figure is a bit fanciful. The latest rumors indicate that the iPhone 5 would be launched on September 21 in the USA and on October 5 in the rest of the world, so these 6-10 million units could be sold in more than 2 weeks.
