Ericsson, one of the manufacturers of 5G equipment for telecommunications networks around the world, estimates that by the end of this year there will be 500 million active 5G subscriptions, with details below.
Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) expects the number of 5G mobile subscriptions to exceed 580 million by the end of 2021, with estimates showing 1 million new such subscriptions being signed every day.
The estimate, which appears in the 20th edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report, reinforces the idea that technology 5G is expected to be the generation of mobile technology with the fastest rate of adoption of all time, anticipating that by the end of 2026 there will be 3,5 billion 5G subscriptions, with 60% coverage of populated areas.
However, the pace of adoption varies greatly by region – Europe has a slower start and lags far behind the markets of China, the US, Korea, Japan and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman) in terms of the pace of 5G deployments .
5G technology is expected to cross the one billion subscription mark two years faster than 4G LTE technology at its time. Key factors behind this include China's early commitment to 5G, as well as the increasing availability and affordability of commercial 5G devices – over 300 5G smartphone models have already been announced or commercially launched.
Estimates also show that this 5G commercial momentum will continue in the coming years, spurred by the increased role of connectivity as an important part of the post-COVID-19 economic recovery.
Thus, according to the report, Northeast Asian markets are expected to register approximately 1,4 billion 5G subscriptions by 2026 (having the largest share), while North American and GCC markets are expected to register the highest adoption rate of 5G subscriptions, accounting for 84% and 73% respectively of all mobile subscriptions in the respective regions.
Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Networks, Ericsson, states: "The 20th edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report shows that we have moved to the next stage of 5G technology with accelerated rollouts and expanded coverage in markets such as China, the US and South Korea . Now is the time for advanced use cases to materialize and deliver the benefits of 5G. Companies and societies are preparing for a post-pandemic world, where digitization powered by 5G technology plays a key role.”
Mobile data traffic is largely generated by smartphones and video
Data traffic continues to grow year by year. Globally, mobile data traffic excluding fixed wireless access (FWA) exceeded 49EB (EB = Exabyte) per month at the end of 2020 and is expected to grow nearly 5-fold to reaching 237EB per month in 2026. At the same time, smartphones, which currently make up 95% of this traffic, are consuming more data than ever. Additionally, globally, usage per smartphone averages over 10GB/month and is expected to reach 35GB/month by the end of 2026.
5G communication service providers are the first interested in FWA solutions
The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating digitization and increasing the importance and need for reliable, high-speed mobile broadband connectivity. According to the latest report, nearly nine out of ten communications service providers (CSPs) that have launched 5G services also have a fixed wireless access (FWA) offering – 4G and/or 5G – even in markets with high adoption of the optical fiber. This is necessary to meet the needs that will lead to an increase in FWA traffic which, according to the report, will reach 64EB, increasing 7 times in the year 2026.
Large-scale IoT deployments are becoming more and more present
It is estimated that IoT technologies – NB-IoT and Cat-M connections (connections with limited bandwidth and coverage, but with increased power and stability, used in localized IoT systems) – will grow by almost 80% in the year 2021, reaching nearly 330 million connections. Also, in the year 2026, they will represent 46% of all IoT cellular connections.
A Closer Look: The Gulf Cooperation Council
The report also contains statistical information on the GCC markets, where government-sponsored digital initiatives are accelerating both technological innovation and 5G adoption. In 2019, the GCC states were among the first in the world to launch commercial 5G services and are expected to handle a total of 2026 million 62G subscriptions by 5, recording the second highest adoption rate of 5G technology globally.
