Russia is currently preparing to launch a new major offensive in Ukraine, with hundreds of thousands of soldiers trained in this regard in recent months, and according to those who carefully analyze the movements of Russian troops, it seems that it could begin in the next two weeks.
Russia would already move a large number of troops and military equipment to the east of Ukraine, without yet knowing exactly where the Russians would intend to attack, but the plan would be for the offensive to be launched before the Leopard 2 tanks reach the Ukrainian army, they being quite old models, but still much more effective than the ones used now by the Ukrainians.
"Ukrainian officials estimate that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late February. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on February 5 that the Ukrainian military expects Russia to begin its decisive offensive around February 24, symbolically linking the attack to the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Reznikov also clarified that the Ukrainian army did not notice the formation of Russian offensive groups in the directions of Kharkiv and Chernihiv or in Belarus; The spokesperson of Ukraine's Southern Operational Command, Nataliya Humenyuk, noted that Russian forces are likely focusing on launching offensive operations in eastern rather than southern Ukraine.
An unnamed Ukrainian military adviser told the Financial Times that Russia plans to launch an offensive in the next 10 days (by February 15), a timeline that would allow Russian forces to hit Ukrainian positions before Western tanks and combat vehicles arrive of the infantry. The head of the Lugansk Oblast Administration, Serhiy Haidai, said that Russian forces continue to send reserves to the Lugansk Region to strike after February 15.
Certain Russian nationalist voices continued to express skepticism about Russia's ability to launch a successful offensive in late February. A milblogger affiliated with Wagner noted that Russian Army Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov (who currently commands Russian forces in Ukraine) has a limited window of time to launch a full-scale offensive operation in Ukraine before it becomes completely impossible to execute."
#Ukrainian officials assess that #Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid to late February. https://t.co/sdV7bSdyW5 pic.twitter.com/L5YIiH6VdD
- ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 7, 2023
