Russia has launched a new large-scale military offensive in Ukraine, and this is because military analysts estimate that the Russians have launched an offensive with mechanized military equipment in the past few days, estimated to be the largest since the beginning of Russian attempts to occupy Avdiivka .
"The scale of the Russian mechanized attack on March 30 is significant. Russian forces have not carried out such a large mechanized attack since the beginning of the Russian localized offensive effort to take Avdiivka in late October 2023, when Ukrainian forces destroyed nearly 50 Russian tanks and over 100 armored vehicles on 19–20 October 2023.
Ukraine's ability to defend against the March 30 attack, particularly near Avdiivka, where Ukrainian forces were forced to quickly retreat to new defensive positions following the loss of the settlement, is a positive indicator of Ukraine's ability to defend against future attacks widely Russian. and the expected Russian offensive operation in the summer of 2024.
Ukrainian officials, justifiably, continue to caution about Ukraine's ability to defend against an expected Russian offensive this summer in the face of ammunition shortages, manpower limitations and delayed Western assistance.
Ukrainian forces may have had to expend a significant amount of materiel to defend against the Russian assault near Tonenke, highlighting Russia's ability to conduct attacks that force Ukraine to expend huge portions of its already limited reserves of materiel and manpower. work to defend themselves.
Ukraine's demonstrated ability to ably defend against a large-scale Russian assault on a particularly critical part of the front, despite Ukraine's challenges, suggests that Ukrainian forces can achieve significant effects on the battlefield if properly equipped. The Russian command may give priority to the Avdiivka area in the Donetsk region.
The readiness of the Russian military command to commit a battalion's worth of tanks to an attack near Avdiivka indicates that this assault was a priority effort. The Russian command may focus its offensive operation planned for late spring/summer 2024 on the western Donetsk region, hoping to build on the steady but marginal advances of Russian forces in this sector.
Ukrainian officials have recently warned that Russian forces are building up personnel along the Kharkiv-Lugansk axis near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, but ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely only be able to launch a concerted operation at wide scale. offensive operation in one operational direction at a time due to Russian manpower and planning limitations.”
4/ The scale of the Russian mechanized assault on March 30 is significant, and the Russian military command's willingness to commit a battalion's worth of tanks to an attack near Avdiivka indicates that this assault was a priority effort. https://t.co/90qMF5a0hu pic.twitter.com/KsVGxrzYCV
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 1, 2024
